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Decision Modeling and Risk Analysis with Excel
Decision making using sensitivity analysis, decision tree, utility theory, Bayesian statistics, Monte Carlo simulation.
Excel
Uncertainty Modeling
Decision Analysis
Data Analysis
Goal Seek
VLOOKUP
Pivot Table
Data Analysis Toolpak
Solver
Sensitivity Analysis
Tornado Chart
Treeplan
Decision Tree
Value of Information
Monte Carlo Simulation
XLRisk
Utility Theory
Utility Function
Exponential Utility Function
Statistics
Central Limit Theorem
Probability Distribution
We all have one thing in common – we don’t know what will happen tomorrow. Living together in this world full of uncertainties, some decisions are rather difficult to make:
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I want to save some money for my future, but how should I allocate my investment?
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I want to invest a lot in this new product, but will the market react to it well enough, to justify my investment?
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I want to hire more employees, or increase my production, but what if the market demand drops?
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The global pandemic has not ended, should I buy that cheap plane ticket?
This course will give you directions at these crossroads. We will use sensitivity analysis, decision tree, and Monte Carlo simulation to better understand this uncertain world, and ourselves.
Even better, we can achieve all of these in Excel, and you don’t need to be an advanced Excel user to benefit from this course. We will start from the basics, and go from zero to hero!
This course is for anyone who wants to make informed decisions, or just wants to learn more about Excel, or statistics in general. After this course, you will be well-equipped to use Excel to help you tackle real-world puzzles!
Excel Essentials - Advanced Functions, What-if Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis
Decision Tree Modeling in Excel - Value of Information, Utility Theory
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2
Section Overview: Excel Basics -
3
Organize Your Data - VLOOKUP V.S. INDEX&MATCH
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4
Organize Your Data - INDEX&MATCH over VLOOKUP!
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5
Organize Your Data - SUMPRODUCT (& exercise answer)
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6
Organize Your Data - SUMIF(S), AVERAGEIF(S), COUNTIF(S)
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7
Organize Your Data - Pivot Table
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8
Organize Your Data -
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Data Analysis & Solver - Goal Seek
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10
Data Analysis & Solver - Solver
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11
Data Analysis & Solver - Data Table
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12
Data Analysis Toolpak
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13
Sensitivity Analysis - Tornado Chart (no add-in)
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14
Sensitivity Analysis - Tornado Chart (with add-in)
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15
Case study: FGC Income Statement -
16
Sensitivity Analysis - Solver Sensitivity Report
Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel - Statistics, Decision Optimization, Correlation
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17
Section Overview: Decision Tree in Excel
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18
Decision Tree Add-in Installation
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19
Decision Tree Basics
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20
Introduction - Case study: Rainbow in a cup
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21
VOI - Value of Information Basics
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22
Perfect and Imperfect Information
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23
VOI - Value of Perfect Information
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24
VOI - Value of Imperfect Information - Flipped Probability (Bayes' Theorem)
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25
VOI: Bayes' Theorem
Let's test your understanding of Bayes' Theorem!
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26
VOI - Value of Imperfect Information - Flipped Probability (Tree Flipping)
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27
Case study: Rainbow in a cup
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28
Utility Theory
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29
Exponential Utility Function
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30
Utility Theory
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31
Utility Theory in Decision Tree
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32
Introduction - Case study: Magic Beans
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33
Case study: Magic Beans
You can view and review the lecture materials indefinitely, like an on-demand channel.
Definitely! If you have an internet connection, courses on Udemy are available on any device at any time. If you don't have an internet connection, some instructors also let their students download course lectures. That's up to the instructor though, so make sure you get on their good side!